EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL OF A MACHINE TEAMMATE

Artificial intelligence has been in use for decades. It is already deployed in manned formations and will continue to be fielded to military units over the next several years. Current strategies and operational concepts call for increased use of artificial-intelligence capabilities across the defense enterprise—from senior leaders to the tactical edge. Unfortunately, artificial intelligence and the warriors that they support will not be compatible "out of the box." Simply bolting an artificial intelligence into teams of humans will not ensure success. The Department of Defense must pay careful attention to how it is deploying artificial intelligences alongside humans. This is especially true in teams where the structure of the team and the behaviors of its members can make or break performance. Because humans and machines work differently, teams should be designed to leverage the strengths of each partner. Team designs should account for the inherent strengths of the machine partner and use them to shore up human weaknesses. This study contributes to the body of knowledge by submitting novel conceptual models that capture the desired team behaviors of humans and machines when operating in human-machine teaming constructs. These models may inform the design of human-machine teams in ways that improve team performance and agility.NPS_Cruser, Monterey, CA 93943Outstanding ThesisMajor, United States Marine CorpsMajor, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Public Performance Metrics: Driving Physician Motivation and Performance

Introduction: As providers transition from “fee-for-service” to “pay-for-performance” models, focus has shifted to improving performance. This trend extends to the emergency department (ED) where visits continue to increase across the United States. Our objective was to determine whether displaying public performance metrics of physician triage data could drive intangible motivators and improve triage performance in the ED.Methods: This is a single institution, time-series performance study on a physician-in-triage system. Individual physician baseline metrics—number of patients triaged and dispositioned per shift—were obtained and prominently displayed with identifiable labels during each quarterly physician group meeting. Physicians were informed that metrics would be collected and displayed quarterly and that there would be no bonuses, punishments, or required training; physicians were essentially free to do as they wished. It was made explicit that the goal was to increase the number triaged, and while the number dispositioned would also be displayed, it would not be a focus, thereby acting as this study’s control. At the end of one year, we analyzed metrics.Results: The group’s average number of patients triaged per shift were as follows: Q1-29.2; Q2-31.9; Q3-34.4; Q4-36.5 (Q1 vs Q4, p < 0.00001). The average numbers of patients dispositioned per shift were Q1-16.4; Q2-17.8; Q3-16.9; Q4-15.3 (Q1 vs Q4, p = 0.14). The top 25% of Q1 performers increased their average numbers triaged from Q1-36.5 to Q4-40.3 (ie, a statistically insignificant increase of 3.8 patients per shift [p = 0.07]). The bottom 25% of Q1 performers, on the other hand, increased their averages from Q1-22.4 to Q4-34.5 (ie, a statistically significant increase of 12.2 patients per shift [p = 0.0013]).Conclusion: Public performance metrics can drive intangible motivators (eg, purpose, mastery, and peer pressure), which can be an effective, low-cost strategy to improve individual performance, achieve institutional goals, and thrive in the pay-for-performance era

Economic evaluation of typhoid - a review.

Introduction: To evaluate the potential economic value and likely impact of a hypothetical rapid test in its early stages of development requires the use of models. The model structure and the type of model (dynamic/static) to employ are key considerations. The aim of the review was to explore the literature on typhoid economic evaluations and to explore the types of models that have been previously adopted in this setting for test-treat evaluations and to capture data on model inputs that may be useful for a de novo model. Areas covered: A systematic review was conducted to identify economic evaluations focused on typhoid in established literature databases. Eight studies were identified and included for narrative synthesis. The review has revealed that there have been relatively few economic evaluations that have focused on typhoid fever, all of which have focused on the impact of interventions at the population level (vaccination) but not the individual level (test-treat strategies). Expert commentary: Under certain circumstances, either a static model or a transmission dynamic model may be appropriate in the evaluation of an intervention for typhoid fever. Typhoid test-treat modeling represents a gray area where further work is needed

Counts-in-Cylinders in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey with Comparisons to N-body Simulations

Environmental statistics provide a necessary means of comparing the properties of galaxies in different environments and a vital test of models of galaxy formation within the prevailing, hierarchical cosmological model. We explore counts-in-cylinders, a common statistic defined as the number of companions of a particular galaxy found within a given projected radius and redshift interval. Galaxy distributions with the same two-point correlation functions do not necessarily have the same companion count distributions. We use this statistic to examine the environments of galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, Data Release 4. We also make preliminary comparisons to four models for the spatial distributions of galaxies, based on N-body simulations, and data from SDSS DR4 to study the utility of the counts-in-cylinders statistic. There is a very large scatter between the number of companions a galaxy has and the mass of its parent dark matter halo and the halo occupation, limiting the utility of this statistic for certain kinds of environmental studies. We also show that prevalent, empirical models of galaxy clustering that match observed two- and three-point clustering statistics well fail to reproduce some aspects of the observed distribution of counts-in-cylinders on 1, 3 and 6-Mpc/h scales. All models that we explore underpredict the fraction of galaxies with few or no companions in 3 and 6-Mpc/h cylinders. Roughly 7% of galaxies in the real universe are significantly more isolated within a 6 Mpc/h cylinder than the galaxies in any of the models we use. Simple, phenomenological models that map galaxies to dark matter halos fail to reproduce high-order clustering statistics in low-density environments.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures. Accepted, Ap

Relative exposure to microplastics and prey for a pelagic forage fish

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Chavarry, J. M., Law, K. L., Barton, A. D., Bowlin, N. M., Ohman, M. D., & Choy, C. A. Relative exposure to microplastics and prey for a pelagic forage fish. Environmental Research Letters, 17(6), (2022): 064038, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7060.In the global ocean, more than 380 species are known to ingest microplastics (plastic particles less than 5 mm in size), including mid-trophic forage fishes central to pelagic food webs. Trophic pathways that bioaccumulate microplastics in marine food webs remain unclear. We assess the potential for the trophic transfer of microplastics through forage fishes, which are prey for diverse predators including commercial and protected species. Here, we quantify Northern Anchovy (Engraulis mordax) exposure to microplastics relative to their natural zooplankton prey, across their vertical habitat. Microplastic and zooplankton samples were collected from the California Current Ecosystem in 2006 and 2007. We estimated the abundance of microplastics beyond the sampled size range but within anchovy feeding size ranges using global microplastic size distributions. Depth-integrated microplastics (0–30 m depth) were estimated using a depth decay model, accounting for the effects of wind-driven vertical mixing on buoyant microplastics. In this coastal upwelling biome, the median relative exposure for an anchovy that consumed prey 0.287–5 mm in size was 1 microplastic particle for every 3399 zooplankton individuals. Microplastic exposure varied, peaking within offshore habitats, during the winter, and during the day. Maximum exposure to microplastic particles relative to zooplankton prey was higher for juvenile (1:23) than adult (1:33) anchovy due to growth-associated differences in anchovy feeding. Overall, microplastic particles constituted fewer than 5% of prey-sized items available to anchovy. Microplastic exposure is likely to increase for forage fishes in the global ocean alongside declines in primary productivity, and with increased water column stratification and microplastic pollution.This work originated from the Plastic Awareness Global Initiative (PAGI) international workshop, hosted by the Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation (CMBC) at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego in 2018, with support from Igor Korneitchouk and the Wilsdorf Mettler Future Foundation. We thank the workshop participants for early discussions and a collaborative meeting space. We thank Kelly Lance for her illustration contributions, and the SIO Communications Office for their support. We thank Miriam Doyle and Ryan Rykaczewski for their assistance in data acquisition, and we thank Penny Dockry and Stuart Sandin of CMBC for administrative and logistical support. Julia Chavarry was supported by the San Diego Fellowship. This paper is a contribution from the California Current Ecosystem Long Term Ecological Research site, supported by the National Science Foundation

Close Galaxy Counts as a Probe of Hierarchical Structure Formation

Standard LCDM predicts that the major merger rate of galaxy-size dark matter halos rises rapidly with redshift. The average number of close companions per galaxy, Nc, is often used to infer the galaxy merger rate, however, recent observational studies suggest that Nc evolves very little with redshift. Here we use a "hybrid" N- body simulation plus analytic substructure model to predict Nc directly. We identify dark matter subhalos with galaxies and show that the observed lack of close pair count evolution arises because the high merger rate per halo at early times is counteracted by a decrease in the number of halos massive enough to host a galaxy pair. We compare our results to data compiled from the DEEP2, SSRS2, and the UZC redshift surveys. Observed pair counts match our predictions if we assume a monotonic mapping between galaxy luminosity and the maximum circular velocity that each subhalo had when it was first accreted onto its host halo. This suggests that satellite galaxies are significantly more resilient to destruction than are dissipationless dark matter subhalos. We argue that while Nc does not provide a direct measure of the halo merger rate, it offers a powerful means to constrain the Halo Occupation Distribution and the spatial distribution of galaxies within halos. Interpreted in this way, close pair counts provide a useful test of galaxy formation processes on < 100 kpc scales.Comment: 16 pages, 16 figures, minor change to figure 10, figure captions updated, typos corrected, Figure 4 corrected, version accepted for publication by Ap

Deep HST Photometry of NGC 6388: Age and Horizontal Branch Luminosity

Using the Hubble Space Telescope, we have obtained the first color-magnitude diagram (CMD) to reach the main-sequence turnoff of the Galactic globular cluster NGC 6388. From a comparison between the cluster CMD and 47 Tucanae's, we find that the bulk of the stars in these two clusters have nearly the same age and chemical composition. On the other hand, our results indicate that the blue horizontal branch and RR Lyrae components in NGC 6388 are intrinsically overluminous, which must be due to one or more, still undetermined, non-canonical second parameter(s) affecting a relatively minor fraction of the stars in NGC 6388.Comment: 4 pages, 3 colored figures. LOW-RESOLUTION VERSION. The interested reader is strongly encouraged to download the full-resolution preprint from http://www.astro.puc.cl/~mcatelan/N6388-HST.pd

HST Snaphot Study of Variable Stars in Globular Clusters: Inner Region of NGC 6441

[Abridged] We present the results of a Hubble Space Telescope snapshot program to survey the inner region of the globular cluster NGC 6441 for its variable stars. A total of 57 variable stars was found including 38 RR Lyrae stars, 6 Population II Cepheids, and 12 long period variables. Of the RR Lyrae stars observed in this survey, 26 are pulsating in the fundamental mode with a mean period of 0.753d and 12 are first-overtone mode pulsators with a mean period of 0.365d. These values match up very well with those found in ground-based surveys. Combining all the available data for NGC 6441, we find mean periods of 0.759d and 0.375d for the RRab and RRc stars, respectively. We also find that the RR Lyrae in this survey are located in the same regions of a period-amplitude diagram as those found in ground-based surveys. Although NGC 6441 is a metal-rich globular cluster, its RR Lyrae more closely resemble those in Oosterhoff type II globular clusters. However, even compared to typical Oosterhoff type II systems, the mean period of its RRab stars is unusually long. We also derived I-band period-luminosity relations for the RR Lyrae stars. Of the six Population II Cepheids, five are of W Virginis type and one is a BL Herculis variable stars. This makes NGC 6441, along with NGC 6388, the most metal-rich globular cluster known to contain these types of variable stars. Another variable, V118, may also be a Population II Cepheid given its long period and its separation in magnitude from the RR Lyrae stars. We argue that there does not appear to be a change in the period-luminosity relation slope between the BL Herculis and W Virginis stars, but that a change of slope does occur when the RV Tauri stars are added to the period-luminosity relation.Comment: 28 pages, including 9 figures and 8 tables, emulateapj5/apjfonts style. Accepted by the Astronomical Journal. Approximate publication date September 2003. We recommend the interested reader to download the preprint with full-resolution figures, which can be found at http://www.astro.puc.cl/~mcatelan/Pritzl.zi